But Kirk's view that “Unsubstantiated, shrill, partisan, self-serving, apocalyptic warnings are always wrong” resonates with a growing attitude among some politicians that the quest to achieve net zero by 2050 is too fast and too expensive. HSBC quickly disavowed itself of his remark. “Who cares if Miami is 6 metres under water in 100 years?” The question was posed last week by Stuart Kirk, who was the global head of responsible investing (the irony!) at HSBC Asset Management. A fabrication with the intention to deceive. A story that conjured an imaginary, magical, and wholly fictional future. The Paris Agreement increasingly looks like a beautiful fairy tale. And, finally, meeting climate goals requires nothing less than a total reconstruction of human civilisation-within a single generation. Rivalries between energy superpowers could easily spill over into full-blown conflict. Fourth, the velocity of political change needed to deliver Paris is not only unprecedented, but also full of risk. Third, net zero emissions are not the same as zero emissions-achieving the 1♵☌ target depends on carbon capture technologies that presently do not exist. Projections about the uptake of electric vehicles, for example, vary wildly. Second, the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables will be far more unpredictable than first envisaged.
Over the next two decades, a further US$20 trillion will be invested in oil and gas development.
80% of the world's energy is derived from oil, natural gas, and coal. Our lives continue to be dangerously dependent on fossil fuels. First, we have badly underestimated the scale of the changes we must make to the world's economy to limit global warming. Five conclusions emerge from his sobering analysis. For those who believe we should maintain our optimism-after all, hope encourages action, pessimism feeds nihilism-please consider reading Daniel Yergin's book about energy and climate, The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations (2021). We are way off track to meet the aspirations of Paris.
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